God is a Capitalist

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

S&P 500 Forecast Q4 2014




Here is the latest forecast through Q4 of 2014 based on the profits data for Q1 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This graph looks slightly different from the previous forecast because I recalculated the coefficients so as to take the latest data into consideration. The forecast shows the quarterly average for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter recovering from the downturn in the third quarter. But since the market in the second quarter was at the upper prediction interval it's likely the market will merely travel sideways if not decline over the next two quarters.
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