God is a Capitalist

Monday, October 14, 2013

Financial Bull Riding

Laissez Faire Books, the great publisher of books defending the free market, has agreed to publish my book Financial Bull Riding as an e-book this December. In short, the book uses the Austrian Business Cycle Theory to help investors time entries and exits in the market.

Mainstream conventional wisdom says to buy and hold and index of the market and just bite the bullet when the market collapses by 50% as it did in 2008. However, investors can grow their nest eggs much faster and with less risk if they do nothing but avoid such disasters.

The book examines the faulty economic theory behind conventional investment wisdom, especially the idea that business cycles are random events, explains the ABCT and offers some guidelines for investing. Here is the table of contents as of today:

. 6
  • Who Stole My Cattle?!! 12
    • Pure Bred Bull –The Efficient Market 18
    • Bull Wrestling - What is wrong with EMH?. 24
    • Taking the Bull by the Horns – The business cycle connection. 49
  • Business Cycle Theories – Why Bulls Buck. 53
    • A Brief Tour of Economic Theories. 54
    • Neutering the Bull - The ABCT’s of Business Cycles. 72
    • The Ricardo Effect 80
    • The Role of Money. 92
    • Cyclical and Secular. 96
  • Bull Riding Lessons – How to avoid the business cycle horns. 103
    • Stagnation. 107
    • Improvement 110
    • Confidence. 111
    • Prosperity. 112
    • Excitement 113
  • The Rodeo: Investing Strategies. 119
    • The Calf Roper. 121
    • The Steer Wrestler. 123
    • The Bull rider
  • Conclusion  131


TPL said...

Sounds great, Roger. Just what is needed - the application of ABCT to investment. Dan Denning, who published The Bull Hunter years ago, is sort of a pro-Austrian ABCT investment writer (which is good). I note from your contents that your approach to avoiding risk can be just as good as sound investments - an approach to risk that is similar to Buffet's (over against MPT which refers to risk in volatility terms). EMH is an amusing but ineffective idea.

My concern is how to interpret Mises' and Hayek's notions in terms of macroeconomic and other available data on the market, because it is usually always aggregates.

Best wishes for the book.

Roger McKinney said...

Thanks, Troy! Yeah it is hard to match government data with Austrian theory. I think the ABCT can help avoid the major downturns in the market but there are years in between the busts so advice like that of Hunter's is useful.