For someone who despises politicians as much as I do it’s really hard to avoid political news lately. But there is a nexus between the presidential election and economics: most voters think the president controls the economy. The evidence for that is the fact that economic models predicting the winners of presidential elections are the best forecasters, far superior to the myriad of polls, except the exit polls, and vastly superior to the legions of political pundits in the media. On the superiority of simple regression models over that of experts for forecasting anything, even the price of wine, read
Super Crunchers.
One economic model predicting presidential elections using just GDP growth shows that the economy must grow at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter of the election year in order for the incumbent party to win. Based on the latest release showing Q2 growth at an annual rate of 1.2%, Trump has virtually won.
The model created by
Ray Fair at Yale University agrees, according to a story on NPR: "It's based on economic growth per capita in the four years before the election. According to Fair, because of the sluggish growth in this recovery, his model now predicts the Republican candidate will win. Fair's model has picked the winner in all but two elections since 1916."