Nobel Laureate in economics Robert Shiller spoke at the AAII investor conference this month where he quoted Keynes on investing: "Most probably, of our
decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will
be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of
animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction."
Keynes thought investors were driven by animal spirits. Shiller has even a lower opinion of investors. He said at
the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland in 2010 that hecould identify bubbles using the same methods that psychologists use to
diagnose mental illness in patients. His key
points were these:
1. Sharp increase in the price of an asset.
2. Great public excitement about these price increases.
3. An accompanying media frenzy.
4. Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t.
5. Growing interest in the asset class among the general public.
6. New era “theories” to justify unprecedented price increases.
7. A decline in lending standards.
