God is a Capitalist

Showing posts with label Bookstaber. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bookstaber. Show all posts

Monday, June 19, 2017

PhD’s and computers explain market volatility since 1980

Richard Bookstaber’s 2007 work, A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation, examines the huge increase in stock and bond market volatility since 1980. He notes that GDP volatility has shrunk while market volatility has increased. And if you graph the S&P 500, especially the year-to-year change, the massive increase in volatility is obvious.

Bookstaber, who has a PhD from MIT, writes that before the rise of computer trading, investment banks tended to hire college graduates who were also former athletes because managers thought they had the right temperament to handle the stresses of trading. Then computers came along and of course they need models to work with. Who had better models than PhD professors at universities? So the banks loaded up on PhD’s to create models for computer trading.

Bookstaber provides an insider’s account of the victories and tragedies of investment banking and arbitrage trading from the mid-1980s on because he labored in the trenches as a risk analyst, much of the time with Salomon Brothers. Two things stand out to Bookstaber: computer trading and innovation.