Bank of England: mainstream econ is broken

It seems that the Bank of England has been feeling the heat from its forecast that Brexit would plunge the UK into a depression. Added to the failure of mainstream economists to predict the Great Recession, the public is losing confidence in its gurus, according to a story in the Guardian,

Haldane described the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the economics profession’s “Michael Fish moment” (a reference to when the BBC weather forecaster predicted in 1987 that the UK would avoid a hurricane that went on to devastate large parts of southern England). Speaking at the Institute for Government in central London, Haldane [Bank of England Chief Economist] said meteorological forecasting had improved markedly following that embarrassing mistake and that the economics profession could follow in its footsteps.

The bank has come under intense criticism for predicting a dramatic slowdown in the UK’s fortunes in the event of a vote for Brexit only for the economy to bounce back strongly and remain one of the best performing in the developed world.

Before the referendum on divorcing the EU, Bank of England governor Mark Carney had warned that that the split would cause a recession in the second half of 2016. Instead, the UK economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the third quarter with no signs of a slowdown in the fourth.

Brexit! The UK's independence day!

Last week the Brits voted for independence from the European Union. Maybe now they better grasp why we colonists divorced King George over 200 years ago.

The Adam Smith Institute has the best pieces on Brexit here and here and with the video Brexit: The Movie.

I had hoped to avoid writing about the British exit from the European Union because I never saw it as an important event, but the hysteria drummed up by the media has made it difficult for me to keep silent. So here are my two bits.

First, why the hysteria? There are two reasons for it. One is that the media have but one purpose and that is to create hysteria. Fear keeps people tuned in and more people paying attention means greater advertising revenues. The great newspaper editor Mencken once wrote, “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.” Because he was in the business, he blinded himself to the fact that the media is an accomplice of politicians in crime.